Everyone from pundits to Paul the Octopus makes predictions about the winner of the Qatar 2022 World Cup, but rather than relying on intuition, some predictions are based on mountains of data.
Lloyd’s of London, the global leader in enterprise risk management solutions, based its forecast on each player’s insurable value. It says the total insurable value of tournament players is around $26 billion, an increase of $10.6 billion since 2018. Its research, supported by the Center for Economics and Business Research, uses salaries, sponsorship, age and field position to calculate players. insurable value.
Based on this method, Lloyd’s correctly selected the winners in 2014 and 2018.
This year he is backing England to win the World Cup.
Lloyd’s valued England at $3.74 billion, making them the most valuable team at Qatar 2022. France were second most valuable at $3.14 billion and Brazil at $3.02 billion of dollars. It ranks England’s Jude Bellingham as the most insurable player, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappe.
Lloyd’s predicts England will top their group before beating Senegal, France and Spain in the round of 16. England will then win against Brazil in the final of the World Cup.
On the other hand, leading sports data producer OPTA used artificial intelligence to predict the winner of the World Cup.
Its AI has created odds for each team, which change live during matches throughout the tournament, as each goal scored will change the possible path other teams could take to get to the final.
Before the tournament, the team he gave the best chance of winning the World Cup was Brazil.
OPTA gave Brazil a 16.3% chance of winning the World Cup.
Neymar, Vinicius Junior and their teammates have an 88.5% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 25.7% chance of reaching the final.
Argentina have the second best chance at 13.1%, followed by France at 12%, Spain at 8.9% and England at 8.8%.
OPTA predicts England will top Group B, with the United States the most likely to finish second, narrowly ahead of Wales. The United States has a 0.7% chance of winning it all.
Former Cameroon and Barcelona striker Samuel Eto’o has predicted an all-African final with Cameroon lifting the trophy. Before the tournament, OPTA gave Cameroon only a 19.8% chance of reaching the knockout stages and a 0.2% chance of winning the tournament. That’s slightly less than host country Qatar, which has a 0.3% chance of winning the World Cup.
With no team at this stage having more than a one-in-six chance of winning the World Cup, OPTA’s data shows just how difficult it is to choose correctly who will lift the trophy on December 18.